Comment on WW3 in 2026/2027? by billionaireby2040

Parent Post: WW3 in 2026/2027?

billionaireby2040 · 3/23/2025, 10:42:20 PM · permalink

The estimation of %%$840 billion to $1.23 trillion profit per year%% made by the **Western Financial Aristocracy** utilizing the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status is based on the calculation of the following wealth extraction methods:

1. **Seigniorage**: Profits from issuing the world’s reserve currency.

◦ Calculation:

▪ U.S. dollar constitutes 59% global foreign exchange reserves (IMF, 2023) roughly $7 trillion of the $11.9 trillion total (IMF COFER, Q3 2023).

▪ Economist Barry Eichengreen estimates the U.S. earns $100 billion annually from this "exorbitant privilege" due to lower borrowing costs and demand for dollar notes.

▪ Unknown factor X1. How much does the financial aristocracy benefit from this? It will be very roughly estimated with 40-80%

◦ Profit: $40-80 billion/year

2. **Inflation Exports**: Wealth transfer from dollar-dependent nations as U.S. monetary policy devalues their reserves.

◦ Calculation:

▪ Global inflation at 8.8% in 2022 (World Bank).

▪ Dollar-holding nations lose purchasing power as their reserves devalue. If 5% of the $7 trillion in dollar reserves eroded in real value in 2022 (a conservative inflation differential), that’s a $350 billion loss to holders.

▪ If Financial Aristocrayc (via asset appreciation) capture half this loss as a wealth transfer (e.g., through stronger dollar assets), that’s ~$175 billion/year during high-inflation periods. Averaged over a decade (milder inflation most years), say $50-100 billion annually.

◦ Profit: $50-100 billion

3. **QE Asset Inflation**: Gains for asset holders (“Financial Aristocracy”) from central bank bond-buying.

◦ Calculation:

▪ Fed QE since 2008 ($8 trillion total) boosted U.S. stock markets (S&amp;P 500 up 300% since 2009). The top 1% own 53% of U.S. stocks (Fed, 2023), and BlackRock/Vanguard hold stakes worth trillions

▪ If QE added $10 trillion to U.S. asset values over 15 years (a rough estimate from market cap growth), annualized gains are ~$667 billion. If the top 1% (overlapping with the aristocracy) claim 50% of this, that’s $333 billion/year. Globally, similar effects might double this to $500-700 billion/year for Western elites.

◦ Profit: $500-700 billion/year

4. **Debt Servicing**: Interest payments from global borrowers to Western creditors.

◦ Calculation:

▪ Developing nations owe $11 trillion in external debt (World Bank, 2023), with ~50% ($5.5 trillion) to Western creditors (banks, bondholders). Interest rates averaging 4-6% (e.g., IMF loans, Eurobonds) yield $220-330 billion/year.

▪ If 70% goes to Western financial institutions tied to the aristocracy (e.g., via bond ownership), that’s $150-230 billion/year. Add U.S. bank profits from domestic debt ($100 billion/year, Fed data), and it’s $250-350 billion total.

◦ Profit: $250-350 billion/year

2 bumps

Signature